By Adib Kanafani, Daniel Sperling (auth.)
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Extra resources for National Transportation Planning
The development of a storage system aimed at spreading seasonal peak traffic will also be considered. In general the focus in this step is to concentrate on the modes and facilities where large benefits can be generated from operational and capital improvements. The improvement strategies developed in this planning phase will first be used in the Identification of Future Transportation Deficiencies. They will also constitute a major element in the final recommendations for institutional arrangements and management operations and structures.
Simplicity versus errors of aggregation) and should be treated carefully. The net volume of goods moving out of and into each zone (Le. surpluses and deficits) will then be derived from zonal consumption and production figures. The present pattern of interzonal commodity flows will be determined by analyzing origin-destination movements of goods. Once the data characterizing interzonal demand for transportation has been formulated, a Commodity Flow Distribution Model based on the spatial distribution of surpluses and deficits is developed using linear programming.
3 For long-range forecasting (from about ten to fifteen years) apply the Commodity Flow Distribution Model to the total zonal forecasts of surpluses and deficits. 4 Map desire lines of commodity flows for each planning year. Analyze the evolution of the different markets and identify any major inconsistencies between the three forecasting processes. Make appropriate adjustments of the matrices. Expand the intrazonal movements according to the zonal growths in production and consumption. Outputs: Set of planning-year origin-destination matrices of commodity flows (tons), including intrazonal movements by commodity class for each planning period.