Explaining the Iraq War: Counterfactual Theory, Logic and by Professor Frank P. Harvey

By Professor Frank P. Harvey

Winner, 2013 Canadian Political technological know-how organization Prize in diplomacy the virtually universally accredited cause of the Iraq warfare is particularly transparent and constant - the USA determination to assault Saddam Hussein's regime on March 19, 2003 used to be a made of the ideological time table, erroneous priorities, intentional deceptions and grand options of President George W. Bush and famous 'neoconservatives' and 'unilateralists' on his nationwide defense crew. regardless of the frequent attraction of this model of background, Frank P. Harvey argues that it continues to be an unsubstantiated statement and an underdeveloped argument and not using a logical origin. His booklet goals to supply a traditionally grounded account of the occasions and methods which driven the US-UK coalition in the direction of struggle. The research relies on either actual and counterfactual facts, combines causal mechanisms derived from a number of degrees of research and eventually confirms the position of course dependence and momentum as a miles more suitable cause of the series of selections that resulted in conflict. [C:\Users\Microsoft\Documents\Calibre Library]

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For example, every book supporting the Bush-neocon-war theory (almost all of them) requires that we accept as ‘fact’ the Gore-peace counterfactual – both parts of the argument (as with any causal claim) are inseparable, because you can’t accept the validity of one (neoconism) without simultaneously requiring the validity of the other (Gore-peace). ” Lebow 2000. ” For excellent overviews of counterfactual analysis and necessary condition reasoning, see Levy (2008a) and Goertz and Starr (2003: 54–5).

1, consider Bush’s endorsement, early in 2002, of the policies recommended by Colin Powell, Tony Blair, Al Gore and Richard Holbrooke (widely regarded as Gore’s likely pick for Secretary of State). All of these important political leaders strongly encouraged the President to reject the neoconservative preference to deal with Iraq through unilateral pre-emption (without congressional authorization or UN approval). he United States did not require such the fact that Iran and North Korea constituted more obvious nuclear threats than Iraq, a multilateral strategy was adopted.

He question at the heart of this analysis is which counterfactual receives the strongest support from the facts and evidence derived from a careful (and complete) review of the relevant historical record? he evidence for and against both counterfactuals must be discussed together, because the strengths of one are directly relevant to uncovering the weaknesses of the other and vice versa. hey should not be studied in isolation, yet neoconists never engage these important counterfactual questions.

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